With most of 2024’s political ingredients now in place, 2025 must judge if the proof of Britain’s new policy pudding works in practice. Its rich mix includes October’s ‘International Investment Summit’, ‘Invest 2035: the UK’s modern industrial strategy’, ‘UK Energy Plan 2030’ for net zero, the ‘UK Innovation Strategy’ – plus green-tech innovations. We have also been adding a strong regional flavour.
November will be remembered for a US presidential election that could introduce difficult trading conditions as well as a less favourable approach to climate change and diminishing willingness to reach net zero.
Starting exactly a week after the election, the month also saw pivotal decisions made – or not made – at 2024’s COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan where fraught talks about finance continued beyond the anticipated deadline of 22 November.
Challenges facing leaders from 197 nations plus the EU this year included tough funding questions in the form of a New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance (NCQG), a critical review of progress since COP28 in Dubai, plus a Loss and Damage Fund for climate change-stricken countries.
Changing of the guard …
Individual nations are also under pressure to submit by February 2025 more rigorous ‘nationally determined contributions’ (NDCs) whereby each state unveils future emissions reduction plans that must include a ratchet-mechanism aligned to achieving net zero emissions by 2050.
On the first day of the summit, to set a good example as one of the first nations to unveil its new NDC, the UK pledged to cut emissions by 81% compared with 1990 levels by 2035. This was in line with the Climate Change Committee’s recommendation. However, with Donald Trump now confirmed as the 47th US president from January 2025, this year could be the last time the United States joins the Paris Agreement climate process – for a while at least.
East Lancs Chamber at COP29 …
Once again, the Northwest team – as an officially UNFCCC-recognised NGO led by Chamber Sustainability Director Stephen Sykes and East Lancs Chamber CEO Prof. Miranda Barker OBE DL – worked in the Blue Zone where key global decisions were made and networked commercially in the Green Zone.
The team this year included representatives of eight Lancashire companies who, as at COP28 in 2023, made new international business contacts while spreading the good word about Northwest green-tech innovation.
In December, we will discuss some of their successful war stories.
Bringing it all together …
Key parts of the Government’s new goals were laid out in the Autumn Statement which Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves described as ‘a Budget to rebuild Britain’. They included proposals to increase day-to-day spending by 3.3% between 2023-24 and 2025-26, with extra money for health, plus more than £100 billion in the next five years for roads, rail, schools and hospitals.
However, while there was no change to working people’s payslips as income tax, employee National Insurance (NI) and VAT stay the same, ‘businesses and the wealthiest’ must pay more through large NI increases coupled with an increase to the minimum wage.
Northwest viewpoint …
Miranda commented, “While some protection for smaller firms is welcome, the increase in employer NI Contributions will place a further cost burden on business. This, coupled with a 6.7% increase in the National Living Wage, means many firms will find it more challenging to invest and recruit in the short-term.
She added, “Plans to raise infrastructure spending, sector-specific business rates relief, and additional support for small business will take some of the sting out of tax rises. And it is encouraging to see full expensing and the annual investment allowance made permanent alongside R&D relief being retained.
“But the Chancellor has looked to off-set the upfront hit on firms by outlining a longer-term framework and investment programme to provide stability for the economy and encourage growth. We eagerly await to see if this come to fruition …”
Industrial and trade strategies …
Depending on what the Government does next, much will now depend on its industrial and trade strategies, plus devolution and public investment in infrastructure to reinvigorate supply chains.
All the initiatives listed in the introduction above are important and designed to work together. However, Invest 2035: the UK’s modern industrial strategy which is now open for consultation could be particularly significant (https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/invest-2035-the-uks-modern-industrial-strategy/invest-2035-the-uks-modern-industrial-strategy).
This is because of its ‘… focus on tackling barriers to growth in our highest potential growth-driving sectors and places, creating the right conditions for increased investment, high-quality jobs and ensuring tangible impact in communities right across the UK’.
COP29 aim of boosting battery storage and grids for renewables …
One target Governments were asked to support at COP29 was to increase global energy storage capacity to 1,500 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 – six times higher than 2022 levels – and add or refurbish some 80 million kilometres of electricity grid by 2040.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says more battery capacity is needed to meet the COP28 goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 and maintaining energy security.
Burnley Climate Week (https://burnley.gov.uk/burnley-unveils-climate-week/) …
However, important low carbon activity also happens at a local level.
Burnley hosted its first Climate Week last month. Partners included Burnley FC, Safran Nacelles, East Lancs Chamber of Commerce, Burnley Council, Calico Homes, Burnley College, and Burnley Leisure & Culture. The week included a supply chain event, a youth event, plus a large community event at Towneley Hall and Park.
As Stephen Sykes explained, “No one organisation can tackle climate change and achieve net zero on their own. Businesses must work together throughout their value chains to find ways to collaboratively reduce their emissions.
He added that the event focused on what net zero is, practical actions for businesses to reduce costs, collaborative working with customers and suppliers, saving money, and shrinking carbon footprints.
All businesses attending were offered help to start their own practical carbon reduction plans.
Low carbon news …
Meanwhile, a number of key carbon developments have made headlines.
– Six towns and cities will pilot clean heating
England’s first heat network zones have been announced that will allow businesses and building owners to benefit from low-cost, low-carbon heating. Tens of thousands of jobs will also be created.
Developing urban heat networks is the cheapest and most efficient way of recycling excess heat from, for example, data centres or factories. The schemes in Leeds, Plymouth, Bristol, Stockport, Sheffield, and London will share of £5.8 million to develop zones; construction will start in 2026.
Zones use data to identify the best spots and help to plan and build the technology at scale for suitable buildings such as hotels and large offices.
– Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 last year
Thousands of natural processes involving billions of creatures regulate the climate as ocean, forest, soil, and other natural carbon sinks that absorb circa half of human-created emissions. However, the collapse of carbon sinks not factored into climate models could accelerate global warming
In 2023, researchers showed that the amount of carbon absorbed by land has temporarily collapsed. There are similar warning signs at sea. Greenland’s glaciers and Arctic ice sheets are melting faster too, disrupting the Gulf Stream current and slowing the rate at which oceans absorb carbon.
Melting sea ice is exposing algae-eating zooplankton to more sunlight which could keep them in the oceans depths for longer, disrupting the vertical migration that stores carbon on the sea floor.
As Andrew Watson of University of Exeter explains, “We’re seeing cracks in the resilience of the Earth’s systems.” Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, adds, “Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end.”
Reaching net zero is impossible without nature’s help. Without technology to remove atmospheric carbon on a large scale, forests, grasslands, peat bogs and oceans are the only option for absorbing human carbon pollution which totalled a record 37.4 billion tonnes in 2023.
As a footnote, at least 118 countries are relying on the land in their NDCs. However, extreme weather and droughts are pushing ecosystems into uncharted territory.
– Powder takes as much CO₂ from air as trees
Large trees can suck 40kgs of CO2 from the atmosphere annually. Californian scientists now say they can do the same with less than a quarter of a kilogram of an innovative yellow powder that traps greenhouse gas in its microscopic pores. COF-999 is said to work well after 100 cycles and could perform thousands.
Commercially, it could be deployed in large-scale direct-air-capture (DAC) plants that are beginning to come online to reduce the amount of carbon in the atmosphere.
– Earth’s ‘vital signs’ show a risk to humanity
Record emissions, rising temperatures and growing population are forcing scientists to look at the possibility of societal collapse, according to a new report (https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biae087/7808595?login=false).
Of 35 vital signs assessed in 2023, 25 were worse than ever recorded, including CO2 and human population levels. This indicates a “critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis”, it says. Some 200,000 people are born each day while 170,000 more cattle and sheep are added to the livestock count – all producing greenhouse gas emissions.
Now 28 feedback loops, including increasing emissions from melting permafrost, could help to trigger multiple tipping points like a collapse of Greenland’s huge icecap.
Stunning statistics …
New figures further confirm that serious action is now needed urgently.
– CCC says the UK needs an 81% emissions cut by 2035
UK climate watchdog, the Climate Change Committee (https://www.theccc.org.uk/) says emissions must fall drastically to meet the Paris Agreement. It adds this can be done in ways that benefits jobs and the economy. The UK’s Paris Agreement target ahead of COP29 was 68% by 2030.
The low carbon technologies are available – electric vehicles, heat pumps, and renewables – at competitive prices, but need investment. Businesses need confidence in Government policy plans, with the caveat that “More than any commitment, what we really need is action”.
– Record high emissions need 42% cut to keep 1.5C alive – UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record high in 2023 according to the UNEP; nations must jointly deliver a 42% reduction by 2030 and 57% by 2035 for the Paris Agreement 1.5C goal to remain achievable (https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024).
The report says global emissions passed 57 gigatonnes in 2023 – a 1.3% increase on 2022 levels. The largest sources are power (26%), agriculture and land-use (18%), transport (15%) and heavy industry. The fastest-growing sector was aviation, with a 19.5% increase between 2022 and 2023.
– China heads carbon hierarchy
China was the largest national emitter in 2023, releasing 16,000 megatonnes of CO2e (up 5.2%) while the USA produced almost 6,000 (down 1.4%) and G20 40,900 (up 1.8%).
The UNEP says that if 2030 climate targets are met, temperature increase on pre-industrial levels will be between 2.6C and 2.8C by 2100. At current rates the world is on track for a 3.1C future.
The Internation Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) says passing Paris Agreement’s targets of 1.5C and 2C will leave vast swathes of the planet that are home for three billion people ‘unliveable’ for humans by 2050.
However, the UNEP says 1.5C is “still technically possible” with a “massive effort”. It wants nations to stop producing “hot air” and create more ambitious NDC targets backed with credible delivery plans.
– Corporate calls
More than 50 businesses also want the Government to “reassert” its climate leadership role through an updating NDC, with climate action “underpinned by credible delivery mechanisms”.
A spokesperson added, “If the Government can accelerate policy action towards achieving its 2030 climate target, the UK has an opportunity for growth, innovation, investment and to build resilience.
Every little helps …
