The scientific evidence for dangerous climate change remains conclusive. The business case for green-tech is also intact even if the political will is fluctuating in some parts of the world as strong leadership faulters. One long-term message remains clear. Future generations may curse us if we do not act when we could and should. Meanwhile, effective CBAM regulations could be a low-carbon defence against high-carbon imitators.
The need to tackle climate change head-on is becoming a very inconvenient truth – for now – with apologies to Al Gore. Following the ‘popular’ new US lead might seem to be more convenient as more nations and people face economic hardships. However, turning the other environmental cheek is not a realistic option.
What next? The negative signs are hard to ignore. At least 10 people died in February when torrential rain put roads and houses under water in the south-eastern US. Circa 1,000 people had to be rescued when Kentucky issued an emergency disaster declaration.
In a moment, we look at some other tell-tale warnings of worse to come. Before that we see how tariffs and trade barriers can bring both problems and opportunities. We also welcome the Government’s upgraded Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plans to reach net-zero by 2050 – with a major 2035 target.
And we discuss why ‘going green’ still makes overwhelming good sense.
Good and bad …
East Lancs Chamber CEO Prof. Miranda Barker OBE DL explains,
“Tariffs and other trade barriers can be a double-edged sword. No, we don’t want to see big tariffs in areas where we lead with exports, but yes, we do want our consumers to buy goods made here in the UK.,”
“The only local reference to potential tariffs at the moment is that we would like to see UK CBAM regulations constructed in a positive way to control imports and improve the carbon footprints of what we make in the UK and Northwest. And that includes low carbon technologies.
– A genuine differentiator –
Miranda adds,
“In the current economic and political climate, impending EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) regulations will put a fair price on carbon emitted while making carbon intensive goods will be important for Lancashire.
“CBAM is an opportunity to apply a proper carbon factor to the price of imports. The aim must be to drive up the attraction of UK low carbon products, but exclude those from China et al,”
– No half measures –
she explains,
“However, if the Government backs down and doesn’t go the whole hog in designing UK CBAM properly, it will just be an import tax and we will have lost a major opportunity to drive up the sales or our own carbon components,”
UK’s updated NDC confirms 2035 emission targets …
The Government confirmed plans recently to reach net-zero with an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submission – in line with Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommendations. This includes cutting emissions by at least 81% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels – but excludes international aviation and shipping emissions.
Its plans were mooted at COP29 to meet COP28’s Global Stocktake (GST) which included pledges to end new oil and gas extraction, triple renewable energy capacity, and double energy efficiency.
However, the UK will also shortly release an updated cross-economy delivery plan that will detail policy packages for all sectors, measures to achieve 2030 and 2035 NDC targets, plus Carbon Budgets four to six, en-route to net-zero emissions by 2050.
As Miranda comments,
“I think the NDC announcement will be a good start. It’s really great that we are leading the way. But we need the Government – all governments around the world in fact – plus companies and industry to be committed. We can’t do this on our own.”
Still good long-term reasons for going green …
It is tempting to ignore scary evidence if other people are also not taking it seriously. Many nations and institutions are rowing back on their former green commitments, although there is no strength in numbers in this case.
Which is why looking far enough ahead is important. Younger generations might look back 25 years from now with contempt for popular decisions made today that have disastrous long-term consequences.
However, on which ever level it is viewed – economic, scientific, business, or technical – green-tech still makes good commercial sense that will only increase. Coal and oil have no long-term future.
It’s customers who count …
There is an additional positive school of thought.
While ‘executive orders’ could have a short-term ‘brown-washing’ effect, it is ultimately customers who make buying decisions, not political leaders. A mass exodus of corporate bodies will have little overall effect on the global energy landscape or carbon emissions, the argument continues.
In fact, clean technology has taken over the markets since the 2015 Paris climate agreement. More than £1.6 trillion annually now goes into renewable energy capex. This is driven by climate policy but also profit motives. The cost of renewables has also fallen dramatically, undercutting both coal and gas.
That is hard to beat.
Chamber Low Carbon …
The commercial benefits of low carbon can be seen on a wide industrial scale. However, they are also important for medium and small private and public sector organisations.
The Chamber Low Carbon programme – now in its seventh year – helps business bodies to cut their carbon footprints for environmental reasons, but also increase competitiveness through greater efficiency, productivity, the use of renewable energy, and green supply chains.
In parallel, our sister programme, RedCAT (https://www.red-cat.uk/) helps low carbon and renewable technology innovators to commercialise their products and take them successfully to market.
Current round of Chamber Low Carbon fully-funded support to end …
As of 31st March, the UK Shared Prosperity Fund Chamber Low Carbon support will come to an end.
This means that the Chamber’s Sustainability Team will not be able to provide the funded support that Lancashire businesses have had access to for the past few years. However, the Team will still be here to advise but on a more commercial footing. More details will follow in April.
Reasons not to be so cheerful globally …
Having laid out the positive optimistic case above, there is worrying evidence that the world is getting hotter faster – and may be entering new climate era.
January 2025 was the world’s warmest first month of the year on record and raises further questions about an increasing rate of climate change.
It was expected to be cooler than 2024 because of a reduced El Niño effect in the Pacific Ocean. Instead, it broke records by nearly 0.1C, says the European Copernicus climate service (https://climate.copernicus.eu/january-2025-warmest-january-and-lowest-arctic-sea-ice-extent-month).
Researchers cannot fully explain yet why the month was particularly hot even though it follows a series of large temperature records since mid-2023. But they are trying to pin down what changed.
A worsening era of climate change? …
What are some of the key warning signs of greater climate risks ahead?
Polar sea temperatures are abnormally high – as they are in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the Washington Post in January (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/04/caribbean-has-been-unusually-warm-thats-not-good-thing/).
North Pole temperatures soared 200C above normal and the melting point of ice in early February (https://climatefactchecks.org/north-pole-temperatures-soar-20c-above-average-scientists-warn/).
Crevasses in Greenland’s ice sheet – the world’s second largest ice body – are increasing in size and depth, a Durham University research study has found. The northeast Atlantic waters are also unusually hot.
– Half a degree too much
A rise 0.50C rise in global temperatures could treble the land area – roughly the size of the US – that is too hot for humans, according to new research with NASA scientist in Nature Review Earth and Environment (https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-024-00635-w), with ‘potentially deadly consequences’ from a 20C rise across Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.
During extreme heat events the new areas will be too hot for healthy young humans. Expanding this for adults over 60 will cover more than a third of the planet’s land mass. Prolonged outdoor exposure – even in the shade with a strong breeze and good hydration – can cause lethal heatstroke and a step-change in heat-mortality risks.
– Sea level rises will overwhelm major oil ports
Rising sea levels driven by global warning will, ironically, overwhelm many large oil terminals. Ports in Saudi Arabia and the US could be seriously damaged by a one metre sea level rise, a new analysis indicates (https://iccinet.org/statecryo24/). Thirteen with the highest super-tanker traffic face serious damage in the coming century – or possibly by 2070.
– A bad case of Simon Says
If the US is not going to comply with the Paris agreement, Indonesia is asking why it should either.
Indonesia produces three tons of carbon per person annually compared to 13 tons in the US and is questioning the ‘justice’ in being asked to close down fossil fuel power stations. In South Africa, there is a ‘possibility’ that decommissioning old coal-fired power stations may be ‘further delayed’.
Argentina withdrew negotiators from COP29 last November after the US Presidential election and may leave the Paris Agreement while boosting its oil and gas output.
Meanwhile, potential purchasers are lining up to buy from the US. They include India which is interested in buying crude oil, petroleum products and liquified natural gas, South Korea which hints that it will buy more American oil and gas to reduce its trade surplus with the US, and Japan’s largest power generator, JERA, which hopes to increase liquified natural gas imports from the US.
– Alaskan gas for east Asia
Reuters also reports that Japan and the US are in talks about potentially shipping LNG from Alaska to east Asian countries – Japan, South Korea and the Philippines – bypassing the troubled Middle East, Russia and China (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-seeks-reshape-asias-energy-supplies-with-us-gas-2025-02-21/?utm_source=cbnewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2025-02-22&utm_campaign=Daily+Briefing+21+02+2025.
– Global electricity demand set to grow 4% annually
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says electricity demand will continue to grow steadily through 2027 in its latest report Electricity 2025 (https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2025). Mobility, industrial electrification, air conditioning, data centre growth, and the AI boom, are culprits.
Developing countries account for 85%. Electrification in China drove consumption up by 7% in 2024 and should average of around 6% through 2027. IEA adds that the global increase will be equivalent to adding Japan’s annual electricity consumption to the global grid each year.
Better news for Britain …
– Offshore wind’s investment potential – The Government has also announced new steps to ease offshore wind expansion, which it says could unlock up to £30 billion investment capital while balancing environmental conservation needs and creating thousands of renewable energy sector jobs.
Under the new scheme, developers will be expected to pay into a Marine Restoration Fund in exchange for more streamlined requirements when assessing the environmental impacts on project sites. The Government will designate new, or extend existing, Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) with fund money. Its aim is to accelerate the consenting process and keep its commitment to protect 30% of UK seas for nature by 2030.
– Finally, a real reason to be cheerful – Self-healing asphalt could solve UK pothole challenge. King’s College London, Swansea University, and Chilean scientists have discovered. Bio-based microcapsules added to asphalt make roads that self-heal when cracks occur, a potential solution for the UK’s £143m pothole problem.
Not only does the material need no maintenance or human intervention, it may also be able to prevent the early-stage cracking of roads ‘autonomously’, reducing future potholes problems.
Cracks occur when bitumen hardens through oxidisation. The team has found a way to reverse the cracking and develop methods to ‘stitch’ asphalt back together.
Time to crack a smile instead … ?
For more news, Click Here
